Thursday, October 06, 2005

good, ugly, bad, and worster

Logistically Impossible
I really don't believe that the Logistic curve applies very well to the problem of estimating oil depletion rates. No matter what you hear and read, the formulation of the Logistic curve just doesn't have the correct physical basis to stand on its own feet. To many, this may sound like heresy, as oil analysts since Hubbert have used the differential equations (in particular, the Verhulst equation) describing the Logistics curve to estimate when peak oil would hit. More than anything, I think its utility came about more through coincidental properties that just happened to match those that should come about through a more mathematically rigorous and sound physical basis.

Mobjectivist is at it again, locking horns with Hubbert's ghost and Michael Lynch in the same post. This is a fascinating read, even though many of the technical points whizzed over my head. (So much to do in my life and what I really want to do is go back to school...) Heavy on statistics. Also check out out his Peak Oil model, rolled up here.

Fears Over Climate as Arctic Ice Melts at Record Level via Energy Bulletin
Satellite pictures show that the extent of Arctic sea ice this month dipped some 20% below the long term average for September - melting an extra 500,000 square miles, or an area twice the size of Texas. If current trends continue, the summertime Arctic Ocean will be completely ice-free well before the end of this century.
Scambos (...) said melting sea ice accelerates warming because dark-coloured water absorbs heat from the sun that was previously reflected back into space by white ice. "Feedbacks in the system are starting to take hold. We could see changes in Arctic ice happening much sooner than we thought..."

Peak oil isn't scary. Climate change, now -- there is something deeply unsettling about living in the midst of it. The weather has been loony and extreme EVERYWHERE this year. This is one of the fundamental predictions of the warming model, and it is coming to pass. Along with strange changes in the oceans -- late upwelling, devastating whole ecosystems that depend on plankton. Perhaps if all the Arctic ice melts, this will mitigate the rising acid levels in our oceans before whole food chains are lost. Peak oil can't come soon enough, to enforce Kyoto-plus via depletion.

Report: Rigs take record hit from Rita via From the Wilderness
The newspaper reports that the hit taken by rigs could delay exploration drilling as far away as the Middle East ... Rigs were in short supply even before the hurricanes, the newspaper reports. They cost $90 million to $550 million, and a rig ordered today to replace a damaged or destroyed rig won't be available before 2008, according to the report.

Rigs are always in short supply on the downslope of the peak -- one must drill more to keep up with depletion. Now, just to get supplies that are shut in (running over 70% for both Gulf Oil and Gas) billions must be shelled out, or put another way, energy will be burned to produce future energy.

Dow Ends Down 124 on Weak Economic Report
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks fell hard for a second day Wednesday, with the Dow Jones industrial average losing more than 120 points after a surprisingly weak reading on the service sector of the economy raised concerns about the continuing impact of higher energy prices.

Higher energy prices affect the economy -- who woulda thunk it. More days like this to come. Count on it. Plan for it. Ignore pollyanna thinking.

Hell, even an idiot like The Mogambo knew to buy gold!
I am, as hard as that is to believe, getting freaked out more and more. didn't increase total credit by much, but they The Federal Reservedid continue accelerating down the Road To Economic Hell (RTEH) by buying, outright, $2.4 billion of debt last week. In short, the government borrows by issuing debt, and the Federal Reserve creates the money to buy the debt! Bingo! Not only creating more money and credit, the damn thing that got us to this point, but to fund the activities of the government! Gaaahhhh!

I've been searching for a diagram that best describes this economic perpetual motion machine that the government has concocted, and I believe I have found one that is just right.


Post a Comment

<< Home