Wednesday, October 05, 2005

tub thumping

Striking Iran would shoot up oil prices to 400 dollars
“During last year’s evaluations of various theoretical outcomes, we reached the conclusion that in the event of an oil sales embargo on Iran the price of oil would reach 110 dollars and in the case of a military attack on Iran its price would reach 400 dollars (a barrel). Therefore, knowing the West’s strategic knowledge of this matter, the oil sanction and military attack options against Iran are just a bluff.”

So says Brigadier General Hassan Abbasi of Greater Persia.

What do I think about this? I think he is absolutely correct. And those prices may be a best case scenario, describing a world where the currencies haven't collapsed.

After all, taking out oil infrastructure is the easiest damn thing in the world. Even hurricanes are getting in on the action! Nigerian rebels are thumbing their noses at the western world! Iran is well situated to bonk Kuwait and Saudi in the refineries. They are, after all, allies of the U.S.

Iran has no more chance of winning a conventional battle against the U.S. military than Iraq. But they have enough supersonic Russian made Sunburn cruise missiles to drop a carrier group, or more likely, blockade the Gulf. (No oil freighters out.)

So, for as long as reason and logic prevail, no one will poke a stick into Iran.


At 11:24 PM, October 05, 2005, Anonymous Anonymous said...

By the way, if anyone can stomach it, look at the reader comments under the Al Jazeera article. I swear, the reader comments there give me more despair for the human race than the last five genocides put together. The Americans seem to fall thusly:
45% want (and seem to think feasible) a US conquest of the world with extermination of everyone who refuses to act white
45% think we can instantly stop all oil purchases so that hundreds of million of Arabs and Persians will starve to death, while we continue happily on ethanol, biofuel or nothing at all, living on self-sufficient farms that miraculously feed 280 million without fertilizer
10% want the world to remain in peace & harmony

And though I am more sympathetic to the non-American posters' rage against imperialism, about half of them are nuts too. Practically no one is talking about their side backing down.
Is it possible that people were this stupid in 1939, or 1914? Is it possible that the remarkably sane, intelligent posters (of many political stripes) who dominate peak oil websites will cancel them out? We'd better.

At 1:29 AM, October 06, 2005, Blogger monkeygrinder said...

Thanks for your comment.

My personal frustration with Peak Oil is that I view it as a problem of culture and mythology, topped by vested interests.

That is, the effects of Peak Oil could be readily mitigated but for culture and mythology.

All those comments come from poor, starving birds: who, with their faces upturned for scraps and attention don't realize they are living in the same nest.


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