the contra option
James Petras on CounterPunch.Org weighs in on the US versus Venezuela.
Cuba and Venezuela Face US and Colombia
The US is relying on a "triangular strategy" to overthrow the Chavez regime: A military invasion from Colombia, US intervention (air and sea attacks plus special forces to assassinate key officials) and an internal uprising by infiltrated terrorists and military traitors, supported by key media, financial and petrol elites. The strategy involves seizing state power, expelling the Cuban aid missions and breaking all agreements with Cuba.
The US "external" strategy toward Venezuela and its "two step" approach toward Cuba face powerful limitations (...) US economy and multi-nationals stand to lose a reliable supply of petroleum in a tight market and billions of dollars in investments weakening the US position in the global energy market.
Petras left leaning analysis is reasonable but gives minimal weight to oil matters, spending more time on observed preparations and anticipated moves. I lay odds against an overt attack directed at Venezuela in the short run. The US has no alternate supply replace Venezuelan oil. Zip. Zilch. Nada. Well, it could run for a day or so on Wolfowitz's comb.
And note "internal uprising" highlighted above. That would be something like the Contras.
Contras can work their evil magic in a toy country like the Honduras whose major export is coffee and bananas. Oil wasn't involved. I know because the CIA World Fact Book tells me so!
Chavez has already put the US on notice; he will stop the flow of oil if they screw around with him. Sure, Chavez could be wrong, and dead. Or, he could be right. Seems like a gamble to me.
Iran now. They pump alotta oil, but not to the US direct. HMMMMMMM.