Sunday, March 27, 2005

blood feud

A very good rendering of some deathless financial drama, and in this case the topic just so happens to be peak oil... Spot the protagonist and the villain!

Suzan Mazur, Debate or Vendetta?
(Michael) Lynch came out slugging, informing conference callers that (Colin) Campbell refuses to appear with him since 1997, saying "you'll understand why very shortly". He seems to view Campbell as old school and too tired to be optimistic about the future.
Lynch believes the Hubbert model that Campbell's theory relies on ­ discoveries and production follow a bell curve ­ is not only "incorrectly modeled", but is "much closer to being junk science". He says further, that while Campbell and his colleague, Jean Laharrere, have now "stopped saying that" . . . they've "never admitted they were wrong".
(Lynch) characterizes Colin Campbell's and Jean Laharrere's modeling as"curve fitting" ­ not geological research ­ "like people who look at stock market cycles and try to come up with waves". Lynch acknowledges that field size is determined by geology but says "the process of discovery is an economic one."

If the curve fits, you must aquit.

Doubtless Lynch could sell ice cubes to a freezer tray. In print, a sales job always looks odd. Ever notice how if you start slightly nodding your head while talking, most people start be-bopping right along with you? If you really want to bake your noodle, question whether you were the first to nod.


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