Monday, January 03, 2005


Spotted on Mobjectivist...

So China found a large supply of oil.

Or... did they?

The coming years will mark extensive lies and hyperbole from governments and individuals about energy and related investments. I know this is obvious to many, but gotta keep beating the drum.

I eagerly await the ASPO analysis on this one.


For the fun of it, I did a few back of the envelope calculations. The world uses 30 billion barrels a year. If the new discovery bears out, that is 5 years of world supply. But, since we know you can't produce all the oil in a field at once, we are probably looking at a production rate of 3 to 5 million barrels a day. (Or more; 150 billion barrels is twice as much oil as in Ghawar) Again, assuming this isn't bunk from the chinese government, that might have the effect of flattening the peak and pushing out production decline - for a few more years of unbridled consumption.



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