Wednesday, December 31, 2014

symmetry

I learned a great deal when I was actively writing this blog.   The most valuable take-away for me was analyzing the future through scenarios, rather than certitude.  I am interested to watch which scenarios speculated on ten years ago come to pass.

It seems to me oil production is in the desperate running to stand still pattern, and it will be there for a while yet.  The Arctic will never be as simple as the desert sands, and the most useful potable energy source mankind has known will steadily wane as the fracking century progresses.

Nuclear sucks, still.   It might start to get some serious regulatory attention in fifteen years or so, if we don't trigger a nuclear war in the interim.   This is not an idle number on my part.   It is tied to the pathetic aging infrastructure.  Fill in the blanks.

Electricity production is trivial.  Nothing pleases me more than watching the electric utilities fight a desperate, pathetic, rear-guard action against solar (for one).   California, Australia, New Zealand, Arizona.   Different states.   Same result.

Methane?  This isn't potable energy, it is strategic.  There is plenty of this stuff, it really needs pipelines to move it efficiently, unless one is in the energy laundering game (Alberta).

So, energy.  Just enjoy the sun and that should get us through.  It will be quite a haul over the next few decades but at the end of it some changes will be evident.  It is impossible to assume otherwise.  We are still in the pattern of  mechanized industry but that can't last.

Have a happy new year.   - fin -

-Jon