Wednesday, April 12, 2006

molasses farming

Geological Peak vs. Logistical Peak
The commenters at UK TOD further deconstructed his statement by separating out the idea of a geological peak versus a logistical peak. We can defer the latter by throttling the production in an optimal fashion -- a very business-centric way of thinking.
I prefer to distinguish the two types of peak as residing on different phases of the oil shock model. Essentially, a geological peak occurs during the discovery process; we hit the peak when we think we have made the most volumetric discoveries per year. On the other hand, the logistical peak only occurs when we start extracting the oil, having to wade through the fallow, construction, and maturation phases prior to that point.

Mobjectivist continues to refine his oil shock model, eschewing slavish devotion to the curvacious.

The speed at which geological reserves can be produced is critical to our current and future energy supply, or rate of production.

Canterell produces fast, like a bowl of vanilla ice cream without the nuts. (It is, in fact, a big bowl of oil).

On slower side, Colorado shale production promises to be more of a rocky road. (I just kicked myself in the head for atrocious punnery.)

Oil-industry analyst Michael Smith, who took his PhD in geology (...) - sitting in the same chair as I did in the research lab - is an expert in this subject. He has spent most of his vocational life as an oil-industry geologist working around the world, particularly in the Middle East. "Reserves are largely irrelevant to the peak," he says. "Production capacity is the important thing - how quickly you can get it out. It is an engineering problem, not a geological problem."


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