Tuesday, July 26, 2005

gobs of data

Peak Oil Crisis: A Bible for Oil Deception - via Energy Bulletin
Some 30 years ago, amidst the oil crises of the 1970’s, the United States Government began compiling information related to US oil consumption and published it annually in the “ Transportation Energy Data Book.” It is now being prepared by the Center for Transportation Analysis at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and is available on line.
Let’s take another case. Some foreign country has stopped sending us its oil. The lines at the pumps stretch for miles, and the people are screaming for buses to get to work, or to the mall for food. A quick look at Chapter 5 will tell you that while America currently has 77,000 transit buses, it also has 620,000 school buses.

This is a good article that has been making the rounds. It references a data packed report that I think many readers & Peak bloggers will find useful. Not so much in regard to their oil reserve numbers -- they do ok, but kind of fluff up the likely non-conventional sources. The massive oceanic methane hydrates reservess are presented as if they were a neutral option. -- HA! --

The breakdown of transportation and fuel use in the USA is superb. If I ever get around to taking a crack at a peak energy software model, this dataset would be enough to get me started, along with ASPO data for all the major producer countries. I don't know that I'll ever build this -- (Time is short. I'd be testing it against unrolling reality.) -- but I think it would be easier than modeling the climate. Industrial energy is produced and passed around structurally via a finite set of nodes. Such a model would likely be most useful in running scenarios, NOT predicting the future.

Some hazy time in the future, like say, December, I'm gonna rename this blog "Moot Point."


At 8:25 PM, July 26, 2005, Blogger WHT said...

Go for it on the software model. I remember when you originally posted the model; I would like to see how you tackle it.

At 11:09 PM, July 26, 2005, Blogger monkeygrinder said...

Oh, I would love to. I looked at some climate models (FORTRAN!) to gather ideas. Lately my hobbies have all revolved around dealing with family issues. (bleargh - I shoulda been a monk).

In any case, I'll let you know. I'd probably put it on sourceforge pretty quickly.

I'm interested in getting a picture of how energy is produced by energy, and how energy gets moved around. Pollution / carbon waste / etc outputs can be easily tracked on the side.

Example of useful analysis: Canadian Oil sands requires X natural gas to produce Y oil; thus is bounded by same barring hypothetical alternative energy inputs: The model should be flexible enough to push energy around in a realistic manner, and be aware of how electricity can be used versus liquid fuels. A scripting interface would probably be neccesary to try out scenarios.

Oil depletion would affect everything; that would be a initial bias of the model. No freebies. No cold fusion.

fun. don't distract me with fun, WHT.

At 6:40 AM, July 27, 2005, Anonymous Anonymous said...

1) Liked the HA link.

2) Energy has been modeled - eMergy by Howard Odum. Go to sourceforge and find the written in java emergy software.

At 12:58 AM, July 28, 2005, Blogger monkeygrinder said...

Thanks for the note on the EMergy software.

( and yeah - the Permian link - talk about Heavy Weather )

At 2:18 PM, July 28, 2005, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The problem I have with the emergy model is that a Watt is a watt, no matter if you made it from wind, water, hand cranking, or PV. And in fact, the PV is more emergy due to the human thinking that goes into a PV Panel.


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