Monday, October 09, 2006

tunnel vision



To further the discussion I started a few days ago advocating that Peak Oil types latch on to the Global Warming bandwagon, I’d like to make my position clear, and then devolve into some lazy ruminations.

Put the puzzle together. Everything that is happening in our world – resource depletion, over-consumption, depletion, global warming, global inflation, global wars– these ARE ALL THE SAME SICKNESS. Peak Oil, Peak methane, Peak coal, Peak agriculture, etc, these are each a demonstration of the human condition writ on the world, evolution tossed out of balance -- for perhaps only an instant -- by technology exercised without thought to limits.

In terms of Global Warming, and Peak Oil, this I believe:

Humans will burn EVERY SCRAP of accessible carbon fuel left on the globe, and quickly too. Sorry if this strikes some of cynical, I’d love to know how one is supposed to respond to the examples of the last century. It is HAPPENING and most carbon sequestration schemes are energy inefficient until proven otherwise.

Procrastination is the order of the day. In America, should Bush make it through the rest of his term without being impeached, he’ll spend the rest of his tenure paying lip service to global warming, and doing nothing.

Damn lucky, then, that energy depletion will proceed so rapidly. The opinion of some is that the ride down the energy ladder will be smooth. I disagree, I think it is bad analysis to say you can simply apply nanotechnology (yeast) and continue to brew beer without sugar, but I don’t care. Everyone has a cherished scenario. Some faithfully believe Jesus will return to divide up the corn amongst the baby boomers until there is enough ethanol for all. Others are capable of doing arithmetic.

We’re on the oil production plateau NOW. Use of carbon fuel is GOING DOWN. Get it? Humanity is going to strike the runaway Global Warming tipping point, or dodge it. My guess is dodge by a hair.

My guess is as good as yours, friend, and hopeful to boot.

In the meantime, there is a global warming bandwagon, and everybody is lining up. The good and the bad together. So how about Peak Oil types as well? What are we going to do, run on a platform of water injection or bust? A basket of crude grades? EROEIWTF?

This is not a stab at the necessary work all of us in the Peak Oil community are doing. I’m an energy geek certified, licensed and bonded. I’m fascinated by the world revealed. I’m pleased to get an orthogonal perspective on the arcane priestcraft of economics. Thanks, Ken Deffeyes! None of us, myself included, are going to de-focus from this topic.

Just saying. When advocating solutions, one may advocate something that will be largely misunderstood, or one can hitch a walkable community to global warming. An“eat local” movement to global warming. Wind turbines. Wee little smart cars. Bicycle lanes.

And people might listen. We’ll need this stuff, soon.

Together, we might recycle suburbia.


Tears For Fears
Mad World


All around me are familiar faces
Worn out places, worn out faces
Bright and early for their daily races
Going nowhere, going nowhere
And their tears are filling up their glasses
No expression, no expression
Hide my head I want to drown my sorrow
No tommorow, no tommorow
And I find it kind of funny
I find it kind of sad
The dreams in which I'm dying
Are the best I've ever had


2 Comments:

At 3:32 PM, October 11, 2006, Blogger Bill said...

Jon
You are so right. All of our problems are one. By burning the hydrocarbons as quickly as we could produce humans, and as quickly as humans could invent ways to do so, we have released carbon into the atmosphere at a rate that the biosphere has not been able to absorb. The best case scenario has the oil run out in time to save the climate. The worst case scenario has the oil run out just as we need it to save us from the climate. Either way we are out of oil. Forever by the way.
I am slowly coming to the conclusion that we are all living in a couple of hundred year old dream and the sooner we wake up and wrap our brains around a very much lower energy, zero hydrocarbon existence the better off we will be.

 
At 2:56 AM, October 13, 2006, Blogger Jonathan Siberry said...

Yes our planet is in need of a makeover so to speak and humans need to stop abusing it. But changing becomes so difficult when our lively hood is depended on automobiles, deodorant and energy itself.

However the country is doing something about it (slowly but surely), for example cars are starting to use other sources other than petrol and diesel and currently there is a e85 fuelled car using 85 percent ethanol. not 100 percent but better.
I agree we need to be developing these new features faster and we will run out of oil in the next 100 years so hopefully nuclear fusion will be ok by then (excellent energy but at greater risk).

Is there anything we can do or are we doomed?

Jonathan (spare car parts manager at CarSpareFinder)

 

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