Monday, September 19, 2005

Where's the Beef?

The most common knee-jerk response of an individual to the concept of impending Peak Oil is that it isn't true.

This is followed by placing it, as an event, at least five years out into the future. Seems safe.

If a person can actually be convinced that that Peak Oil, and Peak Methane, (and Peak Energy...) are impending in the next few years, they then might follow up their initial arguments with an ace in the hole:

Technology will save us. Market forces will drive drilling. Production. Bio-Willie. Tokomaks.

Seems reasonable.

I just want to know when these alternatives will be coming on-line, because trees are being burned to cook pizzas in third world countries, due to devastating increases in the price of liquid fuel.

I realize we may not have hit the peak yet, and that it will only be perfectly clear in the rearview mirror. I don't think we will have long to wait. The accuracy of Deffeyes, Simmons, Hanson, and Campbell, from a period of 1995 to present ARE UNSURPASSED. Jeane Dixon is jealous.

Certain telltale events predicted at the inception of this blog are coming true:

Western refineries spurning sulphurous Saudi oil
SAUDI ARABIA is struggling to sell its crude oil despite record fuel prices and calls on the Kingdom to bring further supplies to the market.
Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, has been forced to offer ever-greater discounts to tempt refiners to buy its product, which is shunned for its high sulphur content.

Some might associate that whiff of sulphur with Satan, but few peak oilies are interested in the apocalypse, claims to the contrary notwithstanding. Most of us would have been happy to be organic tomato liberals for the rest our lives, and wish we'd never heard of Peak Oil.

I associate rising sulphur content in oil with reality.

The cheap stuff is disappearing. So let me throw down the gauntlet. Jay Hanson has heretofore been a more accurate futurist than any other individual I know.

I mean -- Read the headlines on The Energy Bulletin. Just read them!

Airlines going bankrupt,
OPEC pumping at capacity,
Panic Buying of Petroleum,
Third World struggling with fuel prices,

... and this is before the peak has set in.

So, here it is. To all the alternative energy proposals.
Where's the beef? We need energy NOW.

This is not a hypothetical dilemma. This is not Y2K. This is our civilization.


At 3:01 AM, September 19, 2005, Blogger Big Gav said...

I always hate it when I consider Jay's predictive track record - it makes the future that much more dispiriting.

I found his late-1990's prediction that the US would invade Iraq as soon as we got close to the peak the most impressive. But I wish the signs that his "A Means Of Control" theory is coming true weren't so obvious.

At 1:57 PM, September 19, 2005, Blogger monkeygrinder said...

Yeah -- I threw in Jay Hanson out of grouchiness, after reading the latest apocaphila thread over at worldchanging. I thought a real doomsayer should be represented.

His predictions up to the present are right on the money.

His scholarly materialist philosophy is impressive but I disagree with some of his ultimate conclusions about the human race, and the inevitibility of our fate. I believe in evolution.

And who knows - the human race may be squeezed through the head of a pin again, as the result of a population crash, enforcing a new evolutionary direction.

I imagine some reading this will imagine I am jonesing for such a future.



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