Ok, I've got about 10 things I want to post on this week and I am running way behind - in the meantime go check out the latest WHT peak oil model... I'll start catching up tonight.
Part 1: A Macro Peak Oil Model
Part 2: A Macro Peak Oil Model
Don't take the peak date too seriously. This profile is meant to show how easily the asymmetrical Bell curve derives from such a simple model. (It is actually quite difficult to distinguish the rise from a Gaussian curve).