Tuesday, June 07, 2005

drumming for oil

In part five of his semi-mainstream series, Kevin Drum posts the ASPO depletion charts and makes a few cogent observations:

...Instead, take a look at oil consumption from 1979 to 1982, after the Iranian revolution caused crude oil prices to double. As you can see, world oil consumption dropped by about 15%.

There are two ways you can interpret this 15% decline:
  • Market forces work! Prices went up, consumption went down, and the world didn't end. It is possible to reduce oil consumption after all.

  • Holy cow! Sure, oil consumption went down, but it took the longest and deepest recession since World War II to accomplish it.

Drum's analysis is good, although he seems to not fully come to grips with the whole point of peak oil; that is; we won't be drilling or producing our way out of this one. (He knocks the chart as pessimistic. Yes it is. So what?)

But mainly, I am not panicking about peak oil these days, I am more concerned about the end of credit, a year or two after the peak. Now that will be ugly.


At 10:13 AM, June 08, 2005, Blogger mh497 said...

Yes, the debt thing could certainly turn out to be a very interesting kicker.

At 8:19 PM, June 08, 2005, Blogger monkeygrinder said...

I'm concerned in part because I am afraid it will feed in to how people and governments deal with depletion.

It is harder to do the right thing when in the midst of a depression.

A lot of people are still livin' in the nineties.

Augustus Greenspan is for sure - heard him blurble the other day that education is important for the work force. Really? important for all the highly educated people who lost their good jobs, and are now picking up dog shit in the park for 6$ an hour, education is important huh?


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