drumming for oil
In part five of his semi-mainstream series, Kevin Drum posts the ASPO depletion charts and makes a few cogent observations:
...Instead, take a look at oil consumption from 1979 to 1982, after the Iranian revolution caused crude oil prices to double. As you can see, world oil consumption dropped by about 15%.
There are two ways you can interpret this 15% decline:
Market forces work! Prices went up, consumption went down, and the world didn't end. It is possible to reduce oil consumption after all.
Holy cow! Sure, oil consumption went down, but it took the longest and deepest recession since World War II to accomplish it.
Drum's analysis is good, although he seems to not fully come to grips with the whole point of peak oil; that is; we won't be drilling or producing our way out of this one. (He knocks the chart as pessimistic. Yes it is. So what?)
But mainly, I am not panicking about peak oil these days, I am more concerned about the end of credit, a year or two after the peak. Now that will be ugly.