precursors

Following the news on peak oil and energy -- which has grown from a trickle to a deluge since I started actively blogging in December of 2004 -- I am struck by something.

Like climate change, peak energy has precursors, signs of burgeoning changes which began to add up and fill in the blanks for those of us who are supposedly forecasting the future.

We're not forecasting anything, we are observing the present.

A few examples of what I mean:

(Via LATOC Breaking News)
Blackouts Possible, Warn Officials
More Power Blackouts Are Likely on Lack of Investment, PwC Says
April 18 (Bloomberg) -- Power blackouts similar to those in the U.S. East Coast, Italy and the U.K. two years ago are likely to be repeated around the world because of insufficient investment and aging power plants, PriceWaterhouseCoopers said.

Note the conventional interpretation. We need more investment. One wonders how the investment bankers missed that we would need all that capacity. More likely, they didn't miss a trick. Blackouts are the future, blackouts are now.

(Via Energy Bulletin)
The Politics of Peak Oil and Fascism
Their distinctive theme is "Britishness" with the emphasis on "whiteness". (...) I went up to Nick Griffin, confirmed his identity and then asked why he was here amongst all these left-wingers. His measured answer was that though Peak Oil received minimal coverage in their manifesto, they see it as a long-term issue which may well make its way up to the top of their policy list.

Peak energy is a fulcrum for change. There is promise and peril there, and the jostling has begun. People are getting wise to the situation and taking action. Don't like what you see? Don't be left out.


(Via Peak Energy Australia)
U.S. Considers Toughening Stance Toward Venezuela
The United States, he said, is particularly concerned because Venezuela is one of four top providers of foreign oil to the United States. "You can't write him off," the aide said of Mr. Chávez.
...
But it has found no allies so far in its attempts to isolate the Venezuelan leader, and it has grown more and more frustrated by Mr. Chávez's strident anti-American outbursts and policies that seem intended to fly in the face of Washington.

Boo Hoo Hoo. Huge, crocodile tears being shed in for the benefit of the Grey Lady. Did that article even mention the coup ths U.S. ran a few years back? What is tougher than that?

Ah yes - an oil war. Iraq, Venezuela, and Iran.
A chimp could connect those dots.